Friday, January 11, 2013

First thoughts on World Series Odds

I took my first look at World Series futures bets today and to no ones surprise the Angels and Blue Jays are the favorites to win. Both teams I would be happy to see go all the way, especially my (recently) beloved Blue Jays. The Angels have a slight advantage going at +700 and the Blue Jays at +725. Defending champion San Francisco Giants are actually in 8th place with +1300 odds.

Some of these are truly confusing. The Ray are 12th most likely at +1900 that's five spots behind the Yankees at +1100. I cant tell if this is crazy or pragmatic  By any metric the Rays are a better team than the Yankees but none the less the Yankees almost always make the playoffs and despite what it looks like now they will somehow probably end up making it next year. The A's and Orioles are both listed with worse odds than the Red Sox who finished 2012 with less than 70 wins and the Phillies who did nothing this off season but get a year older. I don't really oppose the idea that the A's and O's aren't going anywhere. Both of them played a very lucky, unsustainable style last season and are sure to regress back to their actual talent levels  I just think the Sox and Sillies are just as bad.

As for the Mets they are listed as more likely to win than eight other teams: Marlins, Indians, Padres, Mariners, Cubs, Twins, Rockies and Astros. On this list I thought the Mariners were a better team than us last year and have not gotten any worse in the off season while the Mets suffered a serious downgrade in starting pitching. The odds for the Mets to win are +6000 the exact same odds as the Pirates. Frankly I would be insulted if I was a Pirates fan. The Bucco's led their division for a while, narrowly missed the playoffs and played pretty good baseball all year. They are without a doubt more likely to succeed than the Mets this year. As for my money, my initial bet goes as always, with Dickey. Let's go Jays...

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