Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Reds Preview

After a 2 game spit with Milwaukee the Mets continue to battle the mid-west with another two game home stand against the boys from the Nasty 'Nati (people really call it that). Let's see what we are up against.

Pitching tonight is Mike Leake who is currently sporting a negative WAR (-.2) and is all around terrible. In six starts he has put up an ERA/xFIP of 7.11/4.50 and his strike out per 9 (4.55) and walks per 9 (3.13) are much closer to one another than anyone pitcher should ever have. My biggest fear here is that this level of incompetence is so bad that it might be unsustainable, in other words he might be due for a good start, let's assume he won't be.

Next up is Mat Latos who is usually pretty good and this year is pretty below average. His xFIP is 4.34 but he is he getting a decent amount of strike of outs (7.49 per 9). Career Latos is a sub 4 ERA guy who has displayed elite to above average level stuff in the past. I expect he will start pitching better and his numbers will get closer to what is expected, let's hope it happens after Thursday.

Offensively the stars of the squad have been Joey Votto, having a bounce back year (.311/.465/.571) and the always underrated Jay Bruce (.300/.343/.631). They also have the second best rookie in baseball in Zack Cozart. He and Capt. Kirk are currently tied in WAR but all of Kirk's individual offensive numbers exceed Cozart's. Their offense is capable of putting numbers up, fortunately for us we have Santana and Dickey going against them.

As a team the Reds are 18-17, they have scored 134 runs and given up 132.


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