Thursday, May 24, 2012

Padres Preview

The Mets return home from a long road trip to take on the third worst team in baseball, the San Diego Super Padres. For a crappy team the Padres actually have some decent pitching, their starting rotation features 4 sub 4 ERA guys and 3 below 3. Let's see who the Mets are up against.

First up is Eric Stults, not to be confused with the star of Some Kind of Wonderful , that was Eric Stoltz, who is not a pitcher. Stults was DFA'ed by the White Sox earlier this year then picked up by San Diego. In 13 innings he as a bb/9 and k/9 that are far too close (4.73/4.05) but has pitched to an ERA under 3. His career numbers are all bad and I don't expect much of him, which is good because we will have Hefner going that night who is more of a wildcard than Stults.

Next up is Anothony Bass who is pitching scary good. He has an ERA/xFIP of 2.94/3.11 and has been striking out more than a batter per inning pitched. This is his second year in the league and he is showing improvement, he had flashes of brilliance last year with a few glaring issues that he has seemed to work out. This is a guy to watch.

On Saturday we face Clayton Richard who is not so good. He has an ERA over 4 but an xFIP just under which could mean he is a little better than he is getting credit for. His strike out rate is low at 13.7% and his hr/9 is fairly high at 1.08. In a 5 year career he had one dominant season and has been below average the rest, I am confident the Mets can get to him.

Finally on Sunday is our old pal Edinson Volquez who has been pitching OK this year and currently holds a .7 fWAR. His 2012 FIP sits at a respectable 3.55 with a very average k/9 of just above 7. He has never quite gotten back to the dominant level he was performing at for the Reds in 2008 but remains capable of throwing a good game. Come to think of it, he and Richard are very similar in as much as they both built careers out of one really great season. All this team needs is Ollie Perez for the trifecta.

The offensive star of the team is Chase Headly (what a great name) who is so good he actually got added to my SuperBaseball 5000 fantasy team (which is a great compliment you can read about here ). His 2012 WAR is 1.7 and his slash sits at .245/.366/.413 with 5 homers and three stolen bases. Will Venable is playing just a tick above average and Cameron Maybin is playing well below, although he is a stolen base machine with 13 on the year.

As a team the Padres are 16-29, they have scored 139 runs and allowed 182. This is an easy series for us that we can't let go. Anything less than 3 for 4 is a failure.



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