Monday, May 7, 2012

Mets/Phillies Series Prices

My baseball gambling has been very up and down lately. I have been pretty reliably hitting on single games but have not been able to out together a parlay win yet. I bet the Phillies last night, which made me feel dirty but also made me feel profitable in their 9-3 win over the Nats. I also finally won with the Mets yesterday over the D-Backs after they burned me twice losing to the 'Stros.

Lets take a look at the odds for the upcoming Phillies series. Tonight the Mets are +150 against the Phillies who have Halladay going. From what I can tell baseball odds are both a) based totally on pitching and b) insane. Case in point is today's White Sox/Indians doubleheader. In game 1 the White Sox are getting even odds, in game 2 they are getting +120 . The only difference between the games is that Phil Humber is going in the first. Phil Humber threw a perfect game but is otherwise an average to below average pitcher. It just seems crazy that they money line goes up 120 bucks in the non Humber start. That being said, I am taking the Mets here. The Phillies offense has been pretty bad this year and I am gambling we can get a few hits off of the Doc. Wright is leading MLB in OBP and is batting .375. Murph and CF Mets are also over .300. With the bats moving, the Mets might be able to do some damage.

The series price here is +240 . I am not going to bet it. I am aware this makes no sense. If I think the Mets can beat Halladay their is no reason they shouldn't win the series, however gamblers are a superstitious and cowardly lot. I am constantly trying to balance being a homer and being an analyst and right now I am too on the fence to risk money on this series.


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