Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Mets Gambling Preview: Team bets

It's always wonderful when I can write about two of my passions together, gambling and the NY Mets. We previously took a look at some Mets futures odds, today we will expand that and offer some updates. Regular readers know I am a numbers guy and tend to let stats and probability judge my baseball analysis, ironically I don't do this at all when gambling and tend to make bold, passion based bets... I lose a lot. All bets use the money line, which is the common betting format for baseball bets.

Odds to the win the World Series
+5000
This means that $100 dollar bet wins you $5000. I am probably going to bet this, I don't know why. I know they won't win but I like a long shot and I can't pass up the opportunity to cash in AND have the Mets win it all. As you can probably tell, I am a shitty gambler.

Odds to win the National League Pennant
+2500
I disagree with this. The implication here is that it is half as likely that the Mets win the Pennant as they do the World Series and that it is just as difficult for them to win the pennant as it is for them to win the World Series if they already made it there. I think these odds should be higher. If the Mets somehow won the pennant, they would be a pretty good team and them winning the world series would not be such an outrageous leap.

Odds to win the NL East
+ 2000
The others teams odds are: Braves + 435, Marlins + 460, Nats +490 and Phillies -500. The odds makers have the Mets pretty well pegged for 5th here. These odds read that the Phils are the clear favorite, the Mets are clearly the worst and and the other three are basically a toss up. Let's hope these odds don't reflect the actual season.

Regular Season Wins
Over/Under 72
The last time I checked this was 70.5. I am guessing that Johan having a good spring training gave us the 1.5 game boost. Last time I said this about it and I stand by my analysis: I definitely like the over here. The Mets won 77 games (our Pythagorean wins was 79, so we actually got a little unlucky) in 2011,we lost Reyes but are getting back Johan and Ike which should put us at least as good and possibly only a game or two worse than last year so any projection should have us over that number.

Those are the major team bets.Would love to hear reader feedback on what bets they would make. Tomorrow I will be looking at individual player prop bets.

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