Friday, February 10, 2012

Zack Wheeler numbers


The big Mets news of the week is that two Mets made Keith Law's top 100 prospects list. Zack Wheeler at number 27 and Matt Harvey at number 48 (you can read my analysis of Harvey ). Let's take a look at some numbers for the Wheel.

Zack is entering his age 22 season and his first full season for the Mets. He was drafted sixth overall by the Giants in 2009 out of East Paulding High School (home of the Raiders) and acquired by the Mets for Beltran, which in my opinion was a great trade. We should have done the exact same thing with Reyes, who we pretty much knew we couldn't get back, and have acquired another top level prospect like Wheeler.

Lets take a look at his numbers for his two pro seasons:

Wheeler
IP
ERA
FIP
k/9
bb/9
h/9
2010 (A)
58.2
3.99
3.11
10.74
5.83
7.2
2011 (Giants high A)
88
3.99
3.75
10.02
4.81
7.6
2011 (Mets high A)
27
2.00
1.68
10.33
1.67
8.7

I love his Mets numbers.I know he only pitched 27 innings but his ERA and FIP are subterranean, he is striking out better than a guy an inning and walking almost no one. His overall numbers are great too, just not as majestic as his Mets stats. He has kept his ERA under 4 and his much lower FIP leads me to believe that his ERA is unfairly boosted by team defensive factors.

His h/9 and bb/9 are an area for concern however. Before he got to the Mets he was walking about 5 guys a game and giving up 7-8 hits. Their is something to be said that stats like h/9 lose their meaning when it's only over 58 or 88 innings instead of 200 that a MLB pitcher might throw. So I wouldn't lose any sleep over it just yet, but it is something to monitor. At the end of the day he is a single A pitcher and has a lot of work to do before we will see him at Citi Field but he has massive potential and should be a part of the 2014-2016 Mets threepeat * World Series champs.

* Do you have to pay  royalties to Pat Riley for using this?

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